There has been great criticism over Mexico’s energy policies in recent years, as the country’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has continued to ardently support the oil and gas industry above renewable alternatives, while the state-owned oil company Pemex becomes increasingly indebted. There is now major speculation around what is in store for Mexico’s energy sector under AMLO’s Morena party successor Claudia Sheinbaum. Claudia has mainly pledged to follow the policies put in place by her predecessor, but many are hoping for a shift in energy policy rooted in her background as a climate scientist.
Claudia Sheinbaum will become Mexico’s first female president in October this year, after winning the June election. Sheinbaum has an extensive academic background, with a PhD in energy engineering from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, with experience working as the Environmental Secretary for Mexico City in 2000, as well as forming part of the UN panel of climate scientists that was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
During her time as mayor of Mexico City, she carried out innovative energy projects such as the electrification of the city’s bus fleet and the development of a massive rooftop solar project at the Central de Abastos wholesale market. Her track record gives hope to many energy experts who see great potential in the future of Mexico’s renewable energy sector.
During her presidential campaign, Sheinbaum pledged to invest $13.6 billion in renewable energy, including wind and solar farms and hydroelectricity. She hopes to boost renewable energy production by as much as 50 percent by the end of her term in 2030. However, she also stated that she intended to support Pemex and keep it under state control, signalling an ongoing commitment to national oil and gas. The incumbent president faces tough decisions over the next few years when it comes to energy.
Although Mexico has deep historic ties with its oil industry, in recent years Pemex has become increasingly indebted, being labelled as the biggest liquidity and debt concern among its Latin American peers by Fitch Solutions last year. Further, Pemex has been repeatedly criticised for its failure to improve its health and safety standards following several major incidents in recent years.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s renewable energy industry is extremely underdeveloped, despite having significant potential. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Mexico has the potential to establish 24,918 GW of solar photovoltaics, 3,669 GW of wind power, 2.5 GW of conventional geothermal energy, and 1.2 GW of hydropower. Several parts of Mexico are currently seeing the direct effects of climate change. Mexico City is battling a major water shortage, which threatens the city’s drinking supply, while other parts of the country are facing soaring temperatures and severe drought. This demonstrates the need for greater climate action through a green transition.
Mexico signed the Paris Agreement under the leadership of former president Peña Nieto and has made several ambitious climate pledges since. In 2022, Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico's former Foreign Minister, pledged to reduce GHG emissions by 35 percent by the end of the decade at COP27, marking a significant increase from the previous 22 percent reduction target. Meanwhile, Mexico’s energy transition law targets 35 percent renewable electricity generation by 2024.
However, President AMLO did little to achieve these targets during his time in government. AMLO has spent billions keeping Pemex afloat over the last six years while dedicating little funding to the expansion of Mexico’s renewable energy sector. According to the Climate Change Performance Index, Mexico’s track record on climate change policies worsened under the leadership of AMLO, mainly because of higher subsidies for fossil fuels and little progress in reducing deforestation.
While there is optimism around Sheinbaum’s future mana
